Management Science current issue

Management Insights

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

No abstract available.

Battle of the Retail Channels: How Product Selection and Geography Drive Cross-Channel Competition

Brynjolfsson, E., Hu, Y., Rahman, M. S. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

A key question for Internet commerce is the nature of competition with traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. Although traditional retailers vastly outsell Internet retailers in most product categories, research on Internet retailing has largely neglected this fundamental dimension of competition. Is cross-channel competition significant, and if so, how and where can Internet retailers win this battle? This paper attempts to answer these questions using a unique combination of data sets. We collect data on local market structures for traditional retailers, and then match these data to a data set on consumer demand via two direct channels: Internet and catalog. Our analyses show that Internet retailers face significant competition from brick-and-mortar retailers when selling mainstream products, but are virtually immune from competition when selling niche products. Furthermore, because the Internet channel sells proportionately more niche products than the catalog channel, the competition between the Internet channel and local stores is less intense than the competition between the catalog channel and local stores. The methods we introduce can be used to analyze cross-channel competition in other product categories, and suggest that managers need to take into account the types of products they sell when assessing competitive strategies.

Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers

Asparouhova, E., Hertzel, M., Lemmon, M. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

Using data generated from laboratory experiments, we test and compare the empirical accuracy of two models that focus on judgment errors associated with processing information from random sequences. We test for regime-shifting beliefs of the type theorized in Barberis et al. (Barberis, N., A. Shleifer, R. Vishny. 1998. A model of investor sentiment. J. Financial Econom. 49(3) 307–343) and for beliefs in the "law of small numbers" as modeled in Rabin (Rabin, M. 2002. Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. Quart. J. Econom. 117(3) 775–816). In our experiments, we show subjects randomly generated sequences of binary outcomes and ask them to provide probability assessments of the direction of the next outcome. Inconsistent with regime-shifting beliefs, we find that subjects are not more likely to predict that the current streak will continue the longer the streak. Instead, consistent with Rabin (2002), subjects are more likely to expect a reversal following short streaks and continuation after long streaks. Results of a "test-of-fit" analysis based on structural estimation of each model also favor the model in Rabin. To provide more insight on Rabin, we use an additional experimental treatment to show that as the perception of the randomness of the outcome-generating process increases, subjects are more likely to predict reversals of current streaks.

Implications of Expected Changes in the Seller's Price in Name-Your-Own-Price Auctions

Fay, S., Laran, J. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

The seller's threshold price in name-your-own-price auctions varies over time. However, consumers must bid without knowing when these variations occur because the threshold price is unobservable to them. This paper uses an analytical model and laboratory auctions to explore how the frequency of changes in the threshold price impacts consumer bidding behavior in name-your-own-price auctions. In particular, we consider how the frequency of these expected changes affects the optimal pattern of bid sequences (e.g., strictly increasing over time or following a nonmonotonic pattern). We find that when the probability of a price change is moderate, consumers may have an incentive to use nonmonotonic bidding patterns. Rather than steadily increasing their bids over time, consumers will, at some point in the bid sequence, decrease their bid. However, when the expected probability of a price change is very low or very high, consumers do not have an incentive to use nonmonotonic bidding patterns. Interestingly, impatient bidders are more likely to decrease their bids at some point in the bid sequence than patient bidders. Finally, we find that more frequent price changes may increase customer satisfaction.

Volatility Spreads and Expected Stock Returns

Bali, T. G., Hovakimian, A. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

This paper investigates whether realized and implied volatilities of individual stocks can predict the cross-sectional variation in expected returns. Although the levels of volatilities from the physical and risk-neutral distributions cannot predict future returns, there is a significant relation between volatility spreads and expected stock returns. Portfolio level analyses and firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a negative and significant relation between expected returns and the realized-implied volatility spread that can be viewed as a proxy for volatility risk. The results also provide evidence for a significantly positive link between expected returns and the call-put options' implied volatility spread that can be considered as a proxy for jump risk. The parameter estimates from the VAR-bivariate-GARCH model indicate significant information flow from individual equity options to individual stocks, implying informed trading in options by investors with private information.

Composition of Electricity Generation Portfolios, Pivotal Dynamics, and Market Prices

Banal-Estanol, A., Micola, A. R. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

We use simulations to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfolios influences wholesale prices. We find that the relationship between technological diversification and market prices is mediated by the supply-to-demand ratio. In each demand case there is a threshold where pivotal dynamics change. Pivotal dynamics pre- and post-threshold are the cause of nonlinearities in the influence of diversification on market prices. The findings are robust to changes in the main market assumptions.

The Silver Lining Effect: Formal Analysis and Experiments

Jarnebrant, P., Toubia, O., Johnson, E. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:29 PST

The silver lining effect predicts that segregating a small gain from a larger loss results in greater psychological value than does integrating them into a smaller loss. Using a generic prospect theory value function, we formalize this effect and derive conditions under which it should occur. We show analytically that if the gain is smaller than a certain threshold, segregation is optimal. This threshold increases with the size of the loss and decreases with the degree of loss aversion of the decision maker. Our formal analysis results in a set of predictions suggesting that the silver lining effect is more likely to occur when (i) the gain is smaller (for a given loss), (ii) the loss is larger (for a given gain), and (iii) the decision maker is less loss averse. We test and confirm these predictions in two studies of preferences, both in a nonmonetary and a monetary setting, analyzing the data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

Swift and Smart: The Moderating Effects of Technological Capabilities on the Market Pioneering-Firm Survival Relationship

Franco, A. M., Sarkar, M., Agarwal, R., Echambadi, R. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:30 PST

We extend the concept of first-mover advantage to the context of high-technology industries with multiple product generations, and propose that the notion of first-mover advantage needs to be viewed not only through a dynamic lens, but also in conjunction with technological capability. Our main finding is that first-mover advantages are best understood in tandem with the firm's technological capabilities; early entry is beneficial only for pioneers that are technically strong. However, pioneers that are low on technological capabilities suffer from poor survival rates vis-à-vis market responders or nonentrants into new product generations.

A Matter of Balance: Specialization, Task Variety, and Individual Learning in a Software Maintenance Environment

Narayanan, S., Balasubramanian, S., Swaminathan, J. M. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:30 PST

Specialization at work has been recognized as a key driver of learning and productivity since the days of Adam Smith. More recently, researchers have noted that exposure to task variety can enhance learning. We examine how exposure to specialization and variety jointly drive employee productivity in a real-life setting. We analyze a data set covering 88 individuals who worked on 5,711 maintenance tasks in an offshore software support services operation. We find that, as expected, specialization enhances productivity. However, exposure to variety has a nonlinear influence on productivity; i.e., "too much variety" can impede learning. We also find that achieving a proper balance between specialization and exposure to a variety leads to the highest productivity. We capture this balance using an adaptation of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index from the economics literature. In addition, we examine how the productivity of individuals in a workgroup is affected by member entry and exit, with the latter specified in terms of the degree of specialized experience and the degree of variety experience lost from the workgroup when a member exits. Our analysis reveals that the degree of variety experience lost has a greater impact on productivity than the degree of specialized experience that is lost.

Valuing Modularity as a Real Option

Gamba, A., Fusari, N. — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:30 PST

We provide a general valuation approach for capital budgeting decisions involving the modularization in the design of a system. Within the framework developed by Baldwin and Clark (Baldwin, C. Y., K. B. Clark. 2000. Design Rules: The Power of Modularity. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA), we implement a valuation approach using a numerical procedure based on the least-squares Monte Carlo method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (Longstaff, F. A., E. S. Schwartz. 2001. Valuing American options by simulation: A simple least-squares approach. Rev. Financial Stud. 14(1) 113–147). The approach is accurate, general, and flexible.

Call for Papers--Special Issue of Management Science: Marketing Within the Enterprise and Beyond: Submission deadline: February 26, 2010

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:01:30 PST

No abstract available.